Mortgage Interest Rates Forecast

Rates on fixed-rate home loans have dropped slightly. Mortgage rates may fall a little lower in July.

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Mortgage rates this week

Interest rates on fixed-rate home loans rose the week ending July 17, with new inflation numbers virtually assuring the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates this month.

  • The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.84% APR, up six basis points from the previous week's average, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

  • The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.94% APR, up five basis points from the previous week's average.

  • The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 7.45% APR, down four basis points from the previous week's average.

Last week, average mortgage interest rates for 30-year, fixed-rate loans broke a five-week downward streak. This week, rather than turning back around, average rates on fixed-rate loans continued heading upward. Consumer Price Index numbers released July 15, coupled with the jobs report from earlier this month, all but guarantee we will not see a rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its July meeting. Any potential downward pressure on mortgage rates is more or less gone.

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4.5

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4.5

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on NBKC

New American Funding - PURCHASE logo
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on New American Funding

New American Funding

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4.5

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500

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on New American Funding

GO Mortgage - PURCHASE logo
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July mortgage rate forecast

Mortgage rates are rising in July, reversing the gradual drop we saw in June.

The June CPI report seemed to show the early effects of tariffs, and financial markets do not expect the Federal Reserve to cut short-term interest rates at its July 29-30 meeting. Those two factors, as well as a surprisingly strong labor market, seem to be putting a floor beneath mortgage rates.

The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates won't change much over the next three months. The trade association forecasts that the 30-year mortgage will average 6.8% from July through September, about the same as the average from April through June.

Mortgage securitizer Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to drop in the third quarter, averaging 6.6%.

Both organizations predict mortgage rates to decline gradually through the first half of 2026.

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